What is the future of autonomous driving?

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16-May-2017 

Last month, the two German industry giants Daimler and Bosch announced that they would develop completely autonomous vehicles for urban transport by 2020 in a joint research project. Originally this was supposed to be implemented by 2030, but the technical progress and the economic prospects made it possible to bring autonomous vehicles into production faster than expected. Many people are not aware of the fact that autonomous driving has the potential to revolutionize our entire mobility understanding, after all autonomous cars do not have to wait for the owner to finish work and need them again, but rather pick up the children from the school or make purchases. Also the ownership of vehicles is no longer self-evident. This can be undertaken by service providers, as long as cars on order are available whenever we need them. Thus having an own car is no longer necessary, as well as the pricey maintenance. The thereby greatly changed traffic volume would also have immense impact on our cities and agglomerations. Both streets as well as parking and residential areas would have been constructed differently in the future.

What changes in particular our cities would face is being currently investigated by a researcher from Fraunhofer IAO. Claudius Schaufler is working on a study that develops possible future scenarios and provides a view of urban development under the conditions of the modified mobility. In our interview, he takes a look into the urban future.

 

 

1. Claudius, you are employed by the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering in the field of mobility research. You are currently working on a study on the influence of autonomous driving on our cities. Can you tell our readers more about the project?

 

 

C.S.: The technology of autonomous driving is still at such an early stage that the current debate is strongly influenced by possibilities and desires. Car manufacturers, for example, want to avoid accidents, make traveling more comfortable and create new customer groups. In the meantime, cities are aiming for fewer traffic jams and air pollution, as well as more efficient use of energy. When and in what ownership form autonomous vehicles will appear in our everyday life remains difficult to estimate. 

In the study, therefore, I am less concerned with the technology itself, but rather with analysing the possible roles of autonomous vehicles depending on different scenarios. Sure, the idea of ordering a car by app and watching a movie, ordering food or doing something during the journey is very attractive. 

However, many European cities and a lot of US cities are already very dependent on car traffic, influenced by roads crossing the city centres and rising suburbanization. Therefore we should decide how city we want to live in the future should look like, so that the technologies that enable achieving this vision could be found. 

We are investigating a cityscape that includes a variety transport modes and place the autonomous vehicle exactly where it is the most beneficial, based on various sustainability aspects. One of the possible locations is, for example, vacant areas which were previously used for parking and road infrastructure. We can consider the goal of the study achieved if we not only demonstrate these interconnections but also inspire cities to use them for a long-term increase in the quality of life through urban restructuring.

 

 

2. Currently in the automotive sector of Baden-Württemberg, numerous actors are interested in the future of the car and a significant number of people is involved directly or indirectly in the automobile sector. How advanced do you think the German automakers are in the field of autonomous driving in an international comparison?

 

 

C.S.: Competitors from the Silicon Valley have certainly already made more autonomous kilometers with their test vehicles, which in my opinion still does not guarantee success. The recent cooperation between Bosch and Daimler shows that we have very good preconditions at our locations and can use synergies from a wide range of industries with enormous know-how without necessety to rebuild any business areas. In addition I see automation as a sub-strand in the development of the automobile, which will be accompanied by the electrification as well as the reinterpretation of the interior. Manufacturers who are able to offer the best complete package will certainly have advantages. 

In addition to all these vehicle-bound components, the utilization concept and the embedding of the technology into a functioning digital ecosystem also play a significant role. The new comfortable for the customers interfaces should be considered, which Uber, for example, managed very impressively.

 

 

3. Everyone of us is for sure interested in how the future will look like. Your study suggests three possible scenarios of autonomous mobility, could you briefly describe these to our readers and tell us which is the most likely one to happe?

 

 

C.S.: Ownership is crucial for the sustainable use of autonomous technology. In our business-as-usual scenario, the autonomous vehicle remains in the private property; there is virtually no sharing. In the second scenario, we consider an environment in which car and ride sharing will cover a large portion of the demand, which is expanded by a strong interconnectivity with public transport in the third scenario. The latter can have a considerable effect on the number of vehicles required as well as per capita energy consumption. 

In the current political framework the most likely is a mixture of scenarios one and two, which means that autonomous vehicles can be shared and used more efficiently, which leads to increased comfort at lower costs and to rebound effects. Intermodal urban mobility should therefore be based not only on technology, but also on appropriate strategies of urban and mobility planning.

 

 

4. Claudius, you are investigating the effects of autonomous driving on cities. What are the particular challenges and opportunities that cities face in terms of autonomous driving?

 

 

C.S.: As mentioned before, so-called rebound effects represent a huge challenge for cities. In concrete terms, I mean an additional consumption of energy through changes in the mobility behaviour of the users. A simple example: a car becomes more efficient and consumes less fuel, which lowers the cost per kilometre travelled. Consequently, owners of a car are motivated to drive even more. The same could happen if we can use the time in the car differently and, for example, longer commuter distances no longer represent a barrier. In this case, there are secondary rebound effects, such as the increased demand for road infrastructure. 

I see opportunities in the space saving. Less parking areas and roads can create new spaces in the city. Further potential lies in the socially responsible expansion of the mobility system, which also opens up access to the city and thus jobs in areas that are not connected to the local public transport system. The modal split could become far more varied and balanced than it is today.

 

 

5. The project is till October 2017 planned. What are the next steps in the coming weeks and months?

 

C.S.: After analyzing the status quo we are currently preparing the scenarios. Afterwards, we will outline the first effects on the cityscape and subsequently develop a toolbox with influencing variables for cities. After the validation of the indicator catalogues through expert interviews, we will finally apply this in some European cities. After that, we should have a more detailed picture of the spatial potential that the technology can have in different urban environments.

 

Claudius we thank you for the interview and wish a lot of success with your investigation.

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Intermodal urban mobility systems

Spatial integration of various mobility solutions and services at an urban hub.